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May 23, 2003 by
Brian Lowry
A
strong finishing kick from "American Idol" propelled Fox to an
unprecedented tie with one of its elders, ABC, in this season's ratings
race -- a milestone for the network, which introduced its first prime-time
lineup in 1987.
Fox's explosive performance with unscripted fare -- Nielsen data indicate
34.2 million people watched Wednesday's "American Idol" at any given
moment, up 50% from the 22.8 million for the first "Idol" finale in
September -- lifted the network to equal ABC, with both averaging 10
million viewers in prime time this season. That's both a breakthrough for
mogul Rupert Murdoch's network as well as another setback for ABC -- a
fourth-place finisher in May whose management at the
Walt
Disney Co. once pledged to affiliated stations that
finishing third in sweeps (periods that stations rely upon to set ad
rates) was unacceptable.
Fox officials were more enthusiastic about their first-place sweeps
standing among key demographics (repeating a similar feat in February) as
well as their close-second status behind NBC by that yardstick this
season. Although overall viewing provides a cultural barometer,
advertisers focus almost exclusively on adults under 50, making that
demographic the currency networks use to negotiate ad time.
For all the debate about so-called reality TV, this season's ratings
reflect its principal contribution to broadcasters: helping the major
networks slow ratings erosion as competitors nibble at their audience.
Aided by such fare as "Survivor" and "The
Bachelor," the four major networks averaged more than 44
million viewers during prime time this season -- a mere 1% decline versus
last year, when NBC's tally was significantly increased by the Winter
Olympics, the kind of event that lures hard-to-reach viewers back to
broadcast television.
Staged reality shows, including Fox's "American Idol" and "Joe
Millionaire," approximated that effect, with the latter's finale
attracting a bigger audience than the war-plagued
Academy Awards. That kind of arithmetic inspires even rival
executives to hail those shows as a symbol of broadcasting's unique
ability to aggregate vast audiences -- something cable channels seldom
accomplish.
"The reality shows prove once again that nothing works like the network
pipes," said NBC Entertainment President Jeff Zucker in one of several
end-of-season conference calls as networks put the best spin on their
results.
After all the hoopla that has surrounded such cable programs as HBO's "The
Sopranos," MTV's "The Osbournes" (whose ratings diminished sharply this
year) and FX's "The Shield," unscripted programs again made network shows
the center of conversation -- not that all reality shows succeeded. ABC
and Fox -- which embraced the reality boom most enthusiastically -- struck
out with a volley of midseason replacements, including "Are
You Hot? The Search for America's Sexiest People" and
"Married by America," respectively.
"The cream has risen to the top ... [and] some of the garbage has fallen
by the wayside," said CBS Television Chairman Leslie Moonves, whose
network continued to score well with its ongoing "Survivor" franchise.
The networks' minimal loss of viewers is impressive given the forces
pulling against them, with the average household -- thanks to cable and
satellite dishes -- now receiving nearly 100 channels. Although cable
viewing has surpassed the broadcast networks, the shift is based largely
on sheer tonnage, as niche networks expand distribution and whittle away
at the viewing pie.
To borrow Zucker's phrase, some of the "pipes" worked better than others.
CBS will finish the season and the May sweeps as the most-watched network,
averaging 12.6 million viewers. Perhaps most significantly, the network
actually topped NBC's Thursday lineup -- which has ruled that night for
nearly two decades -- with "Survivor," "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation"
(TV's top-rated program) and the new drama "Without a Trace."
Because a disproportionate share of CBS' audience is over 65, NBC remains
the champion that night and for the TV season among adults 18 to 49,
averaging 11.6 million viewers overall; still, even its demographic crowns
could be in jeopardy, with "Friends" heading into its final season, an
aging "Frasier" and "The West Wing" losing more than a quarter of its
2001-02 ratings altitude.
Whatever problems NBC faces, however, pale next to ABC, whose modest
year-to-year gain was attributable to broadcasting the
Super Bowl, which CBS will carry in
2004. Despite establishing inroads with "8 Simple Rules for Dating My Teenage Daughter"
and "The
Bachelor," that dating show and "Monday
Night Football" were the only ABC offerings to rank among
the top 30 in overall viewing.
ABC Entertainment Television Group Chairman Lloyd Braun insisted the
network has "stopped the bleeding" after a steep 20% decline last season,
but its competitive standing doesn't provide much solace for affiliated
stations lamenting a tailspin that began when the "Who
Wants to Be a Millionaire" bubble burst.
ABC did tie CBS in key demographics for the season, but without the
Super Bowl the network faces the real prospect of a fourth-place finish
next season.
If there is room for optimism at ABC, it resides in the fact that viewing
cycles can change quickly, as the twin tent poles of "Joe Millionaire" and
"Idol" propped up a Fox lineup that looked moribund last fall. Even Fox is
concerned about tapping the well too often -- one reason the next
"American Idol" competition won't begin till January, with a junior
edition taking its place until then. "We're trying to manage the asset as
effectively and intelligently as we possibly can," said Fox Television
Entertainment Group Chairman Sandy Grushow.
In addition to Fox, the season's biggest gains belong to the WB network,
which increased its audience by 8% to 4.1 million viewers, passing UPN,
which averaged 3.5 million. (The WB is part-owned by Tribune Co., owner of
the Los Angeles Times.)
Despite cable's net growth, only two basic networks, TNT and Nickelodeon,
averaged over 2 million viewers in prime time. Fox News Channel -- infused
in part by its dramatically higher ratings during the run-up to and
prosecution of war in Iraq -- placed third, at 1.9 million.
USA, Lifetime, TBS, the Disney Channel, ESPN, Cartoon Network and CNN
round out the Top 10. Notably, the four AOL Time Warner networks (TNT,
TBS, Cartoon and CNN) amassed 7 million viewers nightly.
Having largely been left for dead, meanwhile, the made-for-television
movie exhibited signs of life this spring. Productions such as NBC's
Martha Stewart biography and CBS' "Hallmark Hall of Fame" presentation "A
Painted House" scored strong ratings, with respectable tune-in for the
miniseries "Hitler: The Rise of Evil" as well.
"The movie of the week has had a comeback this year, especially in May,"
Moonves said.
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